of special note... reading the subprime solution by robert shiller. i notice that this is what obama intends to do when elected (mccain wants to set up a commission so i don't know his plan yet) but, think about it, when he gets elected, implementation lag, we are already halfway into '09. if they wanted to do it, they should have done it much earlier. not sure if it will help much next year, by which time housing prices may have stabilized.

i submitted my teaching application yesterday for ec102 and ec100. let's hope all goes well. then i won't be able to complain about the teaching anymore, i'll have a few extra bucks to spend and i'll feel more productive. i met up with dr shapiro again and discussion about the credit crunch aside, i always enjoy being regaled with stories of how chicago, being able to take a cab to work on a TA allowance then, and stories of the great depression. to be fair, crises like these have me reaching out for the econ history books more than the models.

prison break episode 4, sarah is in the bar drowning her sorrows and asks, "is all life a tragedy?" sarah and michael have something on about getting together "one day", and michael says "one day is today!"

if i've felt a little uptight recently or keep railing or moaning more than i need to, it's because i see where i need to be and getting there seems a little difficult. having something in the future to hold on to, to work towards, has undoubtedly been better for me in terms of being more serious in my work. but it generally makes me an unhappy person. i need to swing back towards some of that "it's today, you're alive" thinking. especially in the midst of all this worry and panic, it is worth noting that thus far things have held up very well. if the world is paralysed by fear, it is important to keep your head. the markets have solved many things but not human psychology. the AIG ad wasn't sarcasm. i thought it was quite good.

p/s spurs are rubbish. and i have a special place in my heart for liverpool street station. it reminds me of all the trips i had to make there. really, london is special to me.

cheer up guys

i think it was an ogilvy ad, based on the love song of j alfred prufrock.

talked about this with my lecturer today as we drifted off topic. i disagree with her on some points and none of us are big experts in this area. but a few key points i took out.

1. watch russia. the signs are the same, country risk, fall in oil prices, capital flight. what will russia's impact be on wall street? it was masive in 1998.

2. helicopter drops are a good thing if credit is contracting, you want to keep M2/M3 up so you can print what you like without it being inflationary. anyway, i don't think they've resorted to the printing presses, the treasury is basically depositing more money in the fed through sale of securities allowing it to lend more. this has pushed t-bills down to 0.01% occassionally on wednesday.

3. this could get really messy, e.g. japan asset price bubble mark 2. i disagree because it seems there isn't anything so far much wrong with the rest of the economy, bank runs, etc. My worry though is that if they try to engineer a solution where they take bad balance sheets and add them to adequate ones through takeovers, and these adequate ones belong to commercial banks, then you lose the firewall between the financial maelstrom and the consumer's deposits. then you could have a problem.

4. economics is a countercyclical profession.

This reminds me of my mom. She was an immigrant, small businesswoman who was always complaining about how "big" business used its power to take advantage of the "little" people. When I told her I was going to Wharton, she said, "What's that?" I said, that's where one trains to become one of the exploiters. "Oh, that's great," she replied. "If you have the choice, why choose to remain small?" I miss her.

Quote by MHodak on marginal revolution

vix up 24% in a day!

the most hilarious thing today was banking haikus

Run fast to big bank
Take out all of your money
Hide it somewhere safe

to be fair though i thought this episode has been handled very well so far

great weekend

liverpool beat man utd 2-1

sunny weather for the first time in a week. made the soccer at regent's park less of a mudfest

thames river festival! live music, fireworks!

also. i was just telling a friend of mine who was preparing for next week that i didn't think the lehman deal would be settled this weekend. lehman is not quasi-public and doesn't deal in anything as important as the mortgage market. so i said the bailout was just a rumour. but we'll see how next week unfolds. whoever was long on vix must be smiling today.

next week ramps up to 9 to 5 everyday with concurrent micro and stats classes and lectures, so that's another step busier than this week. luckily, have done problem sets in advance.

temporary address:

room 221, high holborn residence, 178 high holborn, london wc1v 7aa

recovering...

haven't had much sleep recently... some nights it's because i've a sinus problem so i have a blocked nose and i can't sleep. no choice but to stay awake and work at reduced efficiency. on a positive note i have chewed through most of the math for micro and stats tutorials, as it's mostly revision.

back to macro now, which i love. but while i enjoy it there's a thought in the back of my mind that i may never work in any central bank anyway, so i may never use this stuff.

current address (until 20 September)

Room 221, High Holborn Residence, 178 High Holborn

too small, and no en-suite bathroom! cannot walk around naked in my room.

fear of death makes men want to have more children

http://www.lse.ac.uk/collections/pressAndInformationOffice/newsAndEvents/archives/2008/LifeAfterDeath.htm

falling ill...

had an introductory soccer game today at hyde park. many south americans. but my hypothesis was true in general. if you're on a postgraduate degree in economics, then your soccer can't be that good. they were decent, not great, which is why we're all studying economics rather than doing something more fun. was the only asian there though. hypothesis 2: skinnier than average people have a comparative advantage in soccer, although maradona is the exception which disproves the rule.

i don't think peak oil will come in my generation. i think peak "spring from the ground" at $1 per barrel or less extraction cost oil has come... but look at all those unconventional sources! plus, i think the british may be pissed off enough to start up more nuclear plants.

next week's schedule

First week... not too busy, still have time to skype

All Lectures at Old Theatre

Monday 8 September

10.00 - 12.00 Revision Maths Lecture
16.30 - 20.30 Induction + Welcome Reception, Senior Dining Room

Tuesday 9 September

11.00 - 12.00 Revision Maths Lecture
14.00 - 15.30 Revision Maths Classes (either of the 2)
15.30 - 17.00

Wednesday 10 September

11.00 - 12.00 Revision Maths Lecture
14.00 - 15.30 Revision Maths Classes
15.30 - 17.00

Thursday 11 September

10.00 - 11.00 Math for Micro Lecture
14.00 - 15.30 Revision Maths Classes
15.30 - 17.00

Friday 12 September

10.00 - 11.00 Probability and Statistics Lecture
11.00 - 12.00 Math for Micro Lecture
14.00 - 15.30 Math for Micro Classes
15.30 - 17.00

return to tory boom and bust

austerity britain. times are bad in the uk. apart from the autumnal storm, times are so bad that gordon brown is telling everybody to save food, because we throw out so much food every year. this is what happens when you have an economy built on finance and very little else.

the pound has given up most of its gains against the us dollar and is performing abysmally against the sgd.

meanwhile, fannie and freddie are going to be nationalized. to be fair, these GSEs were FDR creations, so you can't blame the current administration for "nationalizing" them. they get preferred stock anyway, so there's some taxpayer protection. and the suspected endgame is not to keep them nationalized. it's to split them up into smaller organizations with more manageable risks (which makes sense). if mccain wins this should happen, i'm not so sure what obama has to say about this.

but there is a little spot of prosperity in the uk. the blue side of manchester. £900 billion!

bumper cars

seriously, without traction control and the rain, the belgian grand prix was like bumper cars...but there was a fantastic manoeuver (seriously, i used to be good at writing, i can't understand why spelling such words is so difficult nowadays) which ultimately hamilton got docked 25 seconds for.

for once in my life....

i have a toasty jacket.

what do you have today?

back in london... holborn is not quite bankside... at bankside i had a fantastic room facing out... now i have a lovely view of the courtyard... i always prefer facing a road, i like noise and bustle. there also isn't an ensuite bathroom. not for me guys... for me facilities >> location.

but it's good to be back and in my own independent dwelling. it sharpens my territorial instincts... on the first day, was welcomed by a traditional autumn storm and a file which said: some of this material is not lectured. please finish over the weekend.

so, lot's of stuff to do but it isn't really that difficult. will be heading to bicester to do some shopping.

wem-ber-lee

just as i returned, there was an england u21 - portugal u21 match that they were struggling to sell tickets for, so they had one of those offers like our national stadium where you could go in for £10. i thought it was a pretty good offer for a match at wembley with quite a few premiership players on show and something to play for (a euro 2009 playoff place).

if the match is any indication, we shouldn't expect portugal's future to be bright. although it may very well be the case that they graduate many of their junior players to the senior squad already. england u21 appear to be trying to pass the ball, which they can do quite well. however, in pace, power and physique off the ball they seem to be that much stronger... agbonlahor was single-handedly owning the entire portuguese defence. so the temptation is there to just keep lofting it to chase. but well portuguese guys, that's why you should stop diving and learn to bulk up like a certain c. ronaldo.

childhood dreams

reading bill bryson's short history of almost everything, i'm reminded of one of my childhood dreams. i wanted to be a geologist and collect rocks in remote corners in the world... i used to be able to be identify rocks with a stamp collecting kind of obsession, and be excited by the words moho discontinuity.

just took my super high-tech ippt on saturday, the one with all the bells and whistles and electronic counters... my weakness was standing broadjump!

i missed the singapore bay run this year because i was too lazy to get up... i've submitted a ballot to run for the london marathon to make up for it