i just had this idea before bed today. maybe this is nothing interesting and new, and really it isn't, but i guess i was impressed by the sudden clarity of it.

i am going to make a controversial and bold assertion. i believe that there will be 2 major political parties in singapore by the end of the next 20 years. maybe 30. not because singapore needs it, not because it is good for singapore, not for any normative reason.

i think there exists a basic tension in societies between redistributive justice and the sort of justice which believes it is fair for those who earn to keep their earnings, because they have deserved it.

it is increasing simply because of the dynamics of income inequality. what i am really impressed with is that we have achieved growth over the last 30 years without a significant increase in inequality. did we see a rise in inequality and then a subsequent fall?

this distribution is not stable. i'm just jotting down the idea but we need data. we need ginis (which we have, but need to check reliability), but also we can expect an increasing twin-peakedness in the distribution,

come to a point. which tradeoffs do you make. you must lurch in one direction or another, especially. then you leave a gap to exploit.

better economics than to split on another issue.

to be continued/elaborated. tbc.


mich said...

Oh, I think Singaporeans have been ready for awhile. But the opposition parties just can't get their shit together. And of course the PAPs have their cunning ways. So maybe the desires of the electorate are just part of the picture.

Jesse said...

yes, i was about to mention that perhaps we are well-socialized. something like scandinavia. but sweden did recently lurch right, although they are still firmly a centre left country.