singapore economy

thought i might dedicate some attention to the singapore economy, since i read a bloomberg report which either has strange numbers or is pretty scary

credit suisse estimates about 300,000 positions will be lost by the end of 2010, vs 30,000 jobs last year
on a labour force of 2.7 million, this appears exceedingly high, about 18%
so, if you think that means 18% unemployment, then you'll be shit scared, because that is great depression like statistics
anyway, as an estimate, that looks crazily high, because it errs by a factor of 10. it could even be a typo.

however, we have to keep in mind that these are gross separation statistics, and new positions are going to continue to be created, so the net inflow into unemployment is still going to be big, but much less than the number above.

two-thirds of the jobs lost are expected to be by foreigners and permanent residents, if it's meant to have any comfort. the job losses are still going to have a net impact. reduced tax receipts and consumer spending, although to a large extent we are not consumer-driven.

growth estimate by mti has been revised to -5%. not pretty, not a number you're used to seeing.

the upper forecast of the stimulus package weighs in at S$20 billion, which should come up at about 7.5% of GDP.

US budget deficit will come in at 1.2 trillion or 8.6% GDP.

Meanwhile, the STI ETF has announced an initial dividend of 5 cents per share, which is a yield of 2.73%

No comments: